The Manganese Dilemma Read online

  The Manganese Dilemma

  Ian J Miller

  © Copyright, 2017. Ian Miller

  All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the author, except for fair use, such as the inclusion of brief quotations in a review.

  This is a work of fiction; all characters and events are fictional and should bear no known relationship to anyone or any event.

  Prologue

  In 2016, the Estonian government decided to build what Russian television was to derisively describe as the "Great Estonian Wall", but which might better be described as "The Decidedly Modest Estonian Wall" because while the border with Russia is 294 km long, the television item emphasised that the fence was planned to be no longer than 135 km, and less than a third of the funding required for that was allocated. It would also have "boundary stones and even special barriers aimed at preventing animals from crossing." Construction did not exactly start with a hiss and a bang, but the presence of American troops as part of the NATO decision that Russia was an enemy in waiting meant that military exercises were carried out along the border, and these may have been more of a deterrent than any wall.

  As is often the case with a derogatory comment on something, the statistics offered by Russian television were misleading because much of the border between Estonia and Russia lies in water; either in the middle of a river or the middle of a lake, and it is difficult to build a wall there. What was not reported, though, was the reason for the wall. Did Estonia want to keep Estonians in? Not very likely. To keep Russians out? If so, why? And how many? A wall would hardly stop a motor rifle division, and were individual Russians really a problem? Or stray animals?

  It was felt by some that individual Russians crossing were more of a problem for Russia than Estonia, and there had been one such crossing that was somewhat surprisingly publicized in Russia but rarely mentioned by the Estonian press. Perhaps they did not know of it, for even the citizens of Karoli were unaware that anything of significance had happened. Karoli is beside a tributary that loops around to the River Narova that makes the boundary. Within the loop, and to the southeast of Karoli, there is somewhat waterlogged wasteland that is useless to Estonia, while to the north of this tributary there is wooded land. This was chosen as a site for an exercise for a US army battalion, in which the objective was to delay the advance of Russian units attempting to cross the border river. It was difficult to justify why the Russians would choose to cross here because the land was somewhat difficult for mechanised infantry, although as someone said, just because this place makes little sense, that might be why they would choose it since if they could get across, there might be no significant opposition.

  The exercise was to start at 0600 hrs on a late spring morning. At 0400 hrs satellite surveillance noticed something unusual on the Russian side. A car stopped on an isolated back road about two kilometres north of Perevolok. There was no reason for a car to stop there because the land there was also essentially wasteland. By itself this might not have drawn attention, except that about 0410 hrs two other vehicles stopped and stayed stopped. An analyst decided that this could be something that was totally unexpected: an attempted escape from Russia, and Russian authorities were trying to stop them. The information was conveyed to the Lieutenant Colonel in charge of the battalion, who immediately ordered the exercise to start. No breakfast for the troops would at least produce a touch of the reality of war.

  The problem for the exercise was simple. The fighting vehicles at his disposal were not amphibious whereas the Russian ones were. And even if he could get them across the tributary, their weight would probably have them stuck in the mud. Therefore he deployed them into the wooded area to the north. He suspected that if Russians were to cross this morning, they would mainly cross to the mud. Maybe. But in any case, the evidence was that one carload of people, possibly followed by two more, would be all that were involved. Some infantry would get muddy feet today.

  * * *

  As the light was improving, a Lieutenant was studying the far side of the river through binoculars. Something was moving. There! Upstream! Two people, one a woman, stood up, looked around, then began running, or perhaps better described as lurching, through the silt in a downstream direction. The objective was soon spotted: a small boat with an outboard engine was secured to what seemed to be a piece of tree branch that had been trimmed and driven into the mud.

  Why was that there?

  The two people untied the boat and dragged it to towards the river flow, and just as it started to float, a voice called out in Russian. "Stop!"

  The man had a briefcase, and the woman grabbed it and crawled into the boat. The man stood there, frightened, like an animal in a spotlight, then turned towards the boat, as if he had decided on risking all to escape. There was a shot, and the man fell to the ground.

  "Stop!"

  The woman did not. She pulled on the motor, it burst into life, and she immediately aimed at the centre of the river. Two more shots followed, but they seemingly missed, then one hit the boat. Two soldiers dressed in unmarked woodland camouflage gear emerged with rifles and seemed to take aim.

  The Lieutenant Colonel had ordered two Bradleys to become more visible to those on the other side, and he grasped a megaphone. "If any bullets cross the border in a threatening way, we shall return fire."

  An officer stepped out of the shrubbery on the Russian side and ordered the soldiers not to fire. Two rifles against two armoured fighting vehicles, plus whatever else was over there, was not going to be a contest, and also, there was no point in starting world war three. Very reluctantly, the soldiers fell back.

  The boat beached on the Estonian side, where the woman surrendered to a small squad of soldiers who were ordered to pull the boat up onto a sandy bar. There was a little swearing as four of them did this. The Lieutenant walked up to the woman and to his surprise she spoke English, admittedly with a rather thick Russian accent. She asked for asylum. She was also crying.

  "You're safe," the Lieutenant said.

  "My father isn't," she said between sobs.

  "I'm sorry." He knew that was hopelessly inadequate, but the Lieutenant had no idea what else to say.

  The woman stared across the river, where the body was still lying.

  "There's nothing you can do," the Lieutenant said. "We cannot under any circumstances cross the river now we have threatened the Russians if they violated the border."

  "I know," she said with yet another burst of sobs. She took one last look, blew a kiss, then she handed the Lieutenant the briefcase and added, "He wanted the West to have these."

  "We'll take good care of whatever they are," the Lieutenant said. He had no idea what else to say. "Meanwhile, we had better get you out of this bog. If you would come this way with me." He turned to the Sergeant and added with a grin, "You'll have to keep the exercise going without me."

  The Sergeant gave a snort, then turned to his squad. About time they had mud training.

  It was then that the Russian officer called out. "Would you please return the boat. It was obviously stolen. We also want the girl and the briefcase returned."

  The Sergeant was about to give the "Tough luck!" response, but the Lieutenant Colonel had heard the request. He took up the megaphone and said, "Of course. I give you permission to send over someone to get the boat while we oversee what happens. The girl will be questioned, and while we decide what to do with her, the briefcase will be regarded as her property unless you can prove otherwise."

  "The briefcase contains stolen documents and –"

&
nbsp; "Tough luck!"

  The Sergeant gave a smile at this.

  "You are, however, permitted to come over and recover the boat."

  "I shall be there as soon as I can find another boat," the Russian officer said.

  "We can wait. You cross the border unarmed, or we will shoot."

  The Lieutenant Colonel now ordered field rations to be delivered. The men had to do something, and carrying out a military operation while the Russian had been given permission to cross could be misconstrued. They could eat, and that would fill in the time without showing the Russians anything. But he also had something to think about. Those were soldiers, not FSB, so why was the army pursuing these two? The soldiers were dressed in unmarked woodland camouflage uniforms and the officer had no marking to indicate his rank. Who were they? Spetsnaz? But the shots at the boat bordered on the incompetent. The first shot that killed the old man must have been sheer luck. Surely with shooting like this they would not be Special Forces?

  Shortly there was the sound of a motor, and another boat together with the officer and a soldier approached. The soldier stepped out and waded to the beached boat, keeping both his hands visible. The American Sergeant watched with amusement and made no offer to help get the boat off the sandy bar. The Russian soldier gave no sign of emotion and he clearly did not expect help. With a lot of tugging, and some cynical cheering from the American soldiers, he gradually shifted the boat and pulled it into the river and climbed in, then with a single pull he started the motor and headed back to Russia.

  The exercise continued without further incident, although as the Lieutenant Colonel was to note in his subsequent report, he felt the Russian officer was watching them. That would surprise nobody. He also gave a brief account of what had happened, and added in his report the accuracy of the Russian soldiers bordered on the pathetic while the recovery of the boat had taken ages. Since he was unsure of the identification, he made no mention of the uniforms.

  * * *

  The young woman was treated with respect, she was fed and given comfortable quarters, but she was confined to a military base. It was made quite clear to her that she would remain in her quarters if she wished to be considered for asylum.

  The briefcase was flown to a military base near Washington and the contents examined. There were four files. Three outlined the specifications of some new military equipment that was unknown to the Americans, although as one analyst noted, it was only of moderate value because it would be known before long. Military specifications always become available to the opposition and this information would only be secret for at best a couple of years.

  It was the fourth document that caused a stir. It concerned an account of a "Top Gun" type exercise between a nifty MiG 29 "Fulcrum" and a Sukhoi SU 27 "Flanker". The Flanker won with ten electronic kills before the exercise was called off. The Fulcrum never saw the Flanker electronically, even though the Flanker had bombs attached, and when the Fulcrum saw it visually when the Flanker came in close, it found it impossible to lock on its weapons system. The polyimide paint system containing the crystals labelled "MnDown" was considered a remarkable success. The document asserted that any aircraft so painted could not be detected by radar, nor could any missile lock onto it. The aircraft did not need to have any special design, hence this special paint would change the entire future of air combat. Russia was the only country that had it.

  A special meeting was called to decide whether this document reflected something real, and if so, what to do about it. There was an unusual selection of key members present. The CIA and NSA were represented by two who were considered to be future Director possibilities, but who were unknown outside their agencies. A woman from the White House staff informed those present she would chair the meeting.

  "If you know my name, forget it. This meeting is top secret, and unless you are given a task and a contact number to report to, you will immediately forget you were here. Anyone feel they cannot comply, please leave now."

  Nobody left. A few of those present shook their heads slightly at this refusal of the woman to identify herself, but they ensured the woman would not see this minor show of disrespect.

  A number of scientists had been invited to discuss whether this material was possible. Most scientists scoffed, but one did not.

  "If it absorbs all the radar energy and reflects none, then yes, physics says that is quite possible."

  "What sort of paint would do that?" the woman asked.

  "If you believe the report, a paint system with these crystals in it."

  "And what are these crystals?"

  "I have no idea. The name is almost meaningless."

  "Almost?"

  "Well, Mn is the chemical symbol for manganese, so it is plausible that it is a manganese compound."

  "What about the down?"

  "No idea." He paused, then added, "I suppose it might mean it degrades the energy so that any photons coming back are of too low an energy to be detected."

  "So you're saying it's possible?"

  "There is nothing in physics that says it's impossible. Very unlikely because total absorption is unlikely, but then again, I suppose total isn't necessary. It only has to be enough."

  "So it is really stealth technology?" The military representative who asked this seemed almost relieved it was something they had.

  "Yes, but it claims to be extraordinarily superior to anything we have."

  "I see," the woman said. "Right, now, if any of your computers have copies of this report, you will delete them immediately. Do you understand?"

  "Why?" Ruth Telfar, the agent from the CIA, protested. She was aged in her early forties, she was conservatively dressed, and she was known in the agency to be someone who did not tolerate nonsense from her subordinates. If you brought a suggestion to her, you had better be prepared to defend it. If you did, and showed that you understood all the ramifications and had thought it out, she would either politely decline but thank you for your efforts, or she would accept your view, and if she did, she would back you to the hilt. By doing this she had generated some loyal followers.

  "It doesn't tell us anything," the woman explained, "at least anything worth recording. However, it is highly likely the Russians will eventually hack one of our computers. I don't want them to find out we know, so do what you are ordered, and delete it."

  Telfar said she would comply, but she did not look happy about it.

  "Suppose I don't have the authority?" Bernard Lawton, the NSA representative asked. Lawton was the youngest there, but in some eyes, the most likely to get to the top.

  "You have the authority. If anyone tries to overrule you, give them this telephone number and insist they ring. They will be told in no uncertain terms to behave." She gave a stony stare across the room, challenging anyone to object. Nobody challenged.

  "Similarly, no mention of this in any electronic medium," she continued. She glanced directly at Lawton then at Telfar before continuing, "And I don't care if you think it is so well encrypted it is unreadable to anyone else. The safest method to keep a secret is not to include it in any message."

  Telfar nodded acceptance, and said nothing. Lawton gave a slight smile.

  "Right, everybody out except the representatives from the NSA and the CIA. You," she said, pointing to the scientist who had not scoffed, "Leave your business card please. You will be the designated contact for anyone wanting a scientific answer to a question. You may request specific information from anyone as long as the reason for your enquiry remains secret, and whoever gets the question cannot reasonably associate the question with this report. Do you understand?"

  There was a pause, then a slight smile and, "Yes."

  "Good. Do well, and it will do your career a considerable amount of good. Now, please leave."

  The man nodded and gathered up his belongings. When there were only three people left, the woman turned towards Telfar and said, "Your Director will be informed that you have a priority task within Russia. Yo
u will be responsible for attempting to find out by human intelligence whether this has any truth, and if so, what these crystals are. You can assume that this mission may be dangerous to agents, so they must be careful, but if this is real, we need to know. You will stay away from electronic surveillance from the US, although agents may use bugs. Do you understand?"

  "Yes, although you must realise that if this is real, the Russians will try to hide it, so –"

  "I know," she acknowledged. "Just do your best."

  Telfar nodded, then asked, "Obviously there will be risks for Russian operatives. How much do we risk exposing agents?"

  "We need to know, and we have to go as far as reasonable, but if it comes down to all or nothing, we don't want a really experienced and otherwise valuable agent captured."

  "Understood," Telfar said. The message was clear. If the agent was inexperienced, he or she was disposable. She made a mental note to herself. Her instructions would not require the agent to go to such extremes. She was not going to lose her reputation for this woman.

  "You," she said, turning to Lawton, "will try whatever electronic methods you can think of, including any hacking. To add to the complexity, I have one more piece of information. About a month after the report you saw was written, one Saveliy Ivanovich Kapralov received an award from Vladimir Putin on behalf of his company for assistance to the Russian Defence Industry."

  "I don't see any connection –"

  "Kapralov seemingly controls the manganese industry in Russia."

  "That's not necessarily relevant," Lawton said. "He might have got it for good production of manganese iron alloys, which are necessary for the defence industry."

  "I know. There's no guarantee we can find anything, but it doesn't hurt to push all the buttons and see what comes up."

  "I hope you realize that the Russians are not going to leave their secrets lying around on the web?"